• Currently

    Reported at Sexton Summit,, OR
    11:56 PM PST SUN SEP 24 2017
  • 48°F9°C
  • Clear
    Clear
  • Feels Like:48°F9°CDew Point:39°F4°CHumidity:71% Winds:N 9 mph 14 kph
    Pressure:30.15 in1021 hPaVisibility:10.00 miles16090.00 meters
  • Area Forecast Discussion

230 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Now that we are officially in Fall, Summer like
conditions make a return this week. The weak system that is
visible on satellite washes out to the north of our forecast area
as the upper level ridge nudges over the top of our area. As the
upper ridge continues to move over the region, offshore flow
spreads across the east side by Tuesday morning. This pattern
remains in place through the middle of the week with temperatures
rising to near 90 in the west side valleys on Wednesday. The
thermal trough at the coast moves inland Thursday, bringing the
warmest day of the stretch. At the end of the week the GFS and the
ECMWF remain in good agreement, with both showing the upper ridge
moving east and a weak front moving in Friday. A weak ridge
builds Sunday, and another, slightly stronger front moves in
Monday.

Even though we are officially in Fall, Fire season is NOT OVER!
Across the region things will heat up and become very dry again
by mid week, and the things that can cause fires, like backyard
debris burning, including the use of burn barrels are still
prohibited and can cause wildfires!

Sven

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z TAF CYCLE...Areas of IFR to LIFR fog and low
ceilings are expected to develop this evening and continue through
early Monday morning along the coast north of Cape Blanco.
Elsewhere, VFR will prevail. -CC

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, 24 September 2017...High
pressure offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will maintain
gusty north winds and steep from Cape Blanco south through Tuesday.
Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening today through
Tuesday. North winds may increase further and peak late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening with gusts to 35 kt possible for
areas south of Gold Beach. These increased winds may bring a mix of
steep to very steep seas to the waters with very steep seas possible
mainly beyond 10 nm from shore south of Gold Beach. Additionally,
steep seas and small craft advisory winds and seas may expand north
of Cape Blanco in the late afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Gusty
north winds will diminish late Wednesday morning but steep seas may
linger through late Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, light
southerly winds and light seas are expected across the waters. -CC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, 24 September 2017....
A warming and drying trend is expected over the next several days,
with breezy north winds in the afternoon, and light east winds
overnight. Of note is the recent GFS model trend showing a solidly
dry air mass Wednesday through Friday, to include potential for poor
to moderate humidity recoveries each night during that period.
Temperatures are expected to peak, and humidity values are expected
to be at their lowest, around Thursday as the thermal trough moves
inland. With dry and unstable conditions expected by that point, if
there is a period of time where fire activity picks up, then that
would be it.

At no time during the next week do we expect critical fire weather
conditions. There will be periods of breezy and dry conditions, but
winds and humidity aren`t expected to align enough to warrant any
Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings.

Looking further out and considering the past several days of model
data, the mostly dry and warmer than normal conditions should
generally persist into week 2. However, there are very recent trends
in the long range models that suggest some wetting rains are
possible roughly beyond day 10. -SK/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ35
6-376.
     Hazardous Seas Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for PZZ376.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN