• Currently

    Reported at Concord, Concord Municipal Airport, NH
    4:51 AM EST TUE SEP 19 2017
  • 64°F18°C
  • Overcast
    Overcast
  • Feels Like:64°F18°CDew Point:61°F16°CHumidity:88% Winds: Calm Calm
    Pressure:30.15 in1021 hPaVisibility:10.00 miles16090.00 meters
  • Area Forecast Discussion

726 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose
meanders well off the New England coast today through the end of
the week. High pressure will hold over the region over the
weekend and into early next week, with temperatures remaining
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0700 AM Update...
Quick update to adjust temp/td/rh grids. Patchy fog beginning to
lift across interior sections of the forecast area. Coastal
locations will likely seee variable visibility through the
morning. First of the showers associated with Jose currently
pushing into southern New England and this precipitation still
on track to reach coastal and southern interior sections by
early to mid afternoon. No major changes planned to current
forecast attm.

Prev Disc...
Persistent ocean stratus has expanded into the much of the
forecast area overnight and will persist across much of the
region through the day as Jose approaches from the south
increasing the moist onshore flow. Widespread dense fog has
failed to materialize and is mainly confined to coastal areas of
Maine and new Hampshire to varying degrees so will be dropping
dense fog advisories.

First bands of showers associated with Jose beginning to show
up offshore south of New England and will be working northward
through the morning hours. HRRR brings these showers into far
southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine by early to mid
afternoon but these will be light and spotty through early
evening. Once again high temperatures will generally be confined
to the mid to upper 60s across most of the forecast area. Far
northwest zones including the Connecticut Valley will see highs
in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will become more widespread across coastal and southern
interior zones overnight as Jose makes its closest approach to
southern New England. Still appears that the heaviest QPF will
remain offshore but up to an inch of accumulation can be
expected through Wednesday in coastal areas. Low temperatures
overnight will range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s
south.

Jose will make its turn to the east on Wednesday and showers
across southern zones will gradually shift offshore as the storm
pulls away to the east. Drier air will be tucking in from the
north as high pressure builds south across the region so expect
brightening skies from north to south during the day although
southern zones will likely see clouds for much of the day. High
will range through the 70s with warmest readings found in sunny
northern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hemispheric 500 mb pattern will be dominated by strong ridging
over the atlantic and extending into the ern third of the CONUS
through the period, with only Jose and Maria moving around the
western atlantic, and for the most part trapped in the ridge,
until late in the period when trough digs equatorward across
the central CONUS and should squeeze the tropical systems NE
into the north Atlantic. Through the period, very warm air will
continue to flow in over the top of the ridge and into New
England, which will keep temps above normal through the long
range.

As for Jose, coastal areas will still seem some breezy
conditions Wed night into Thu. In fact may see strongest winds
work onshore along coastal areas Wed night as Jose goes through
a phase of ET and wind field expands. Still looking at wind
gusts of 25-30 mph, so nothing too significant, and wind should
start to diminish Thu afternoon. The winds will mainly be N-NE
Wed night into Thu, so this should bring some direr air in and
pops will diminish quickly Wed evening. Lows Wed night will be
mild for mid Sept, ranging from the mid 50s N to low to mid 60s
in the south. The mostly N winds on Thu should produce a little
bit of downslope and with clearing skies should see highs in the
70s, and warmest in the S and the W zones.

Jose hangs out just S of the Gulf of ME Fri thru Sun, as it
sits between two ridges. It`s hard to say what condition it will
be in at this point, but it is unlikely to have any direct
effects on the CWA after Thu as strong pushes east across the
GReat Lakes and Ohio valley and into New England. This will
bring increasingly warmer air into the region with 850 mb temps
approaching 20C by Sun into Mon. Should see a fair amount of
Sun right through the period, and temps generally in the upper
70s to mid 80s, although cooler at the beaches as lack of strong
flow allows sea breezes to develop. Overnight lows Thu and Fri
night will be in the 50s, but will be milder Sat thru Mon
nights.

May see some changes toward the middle of next week as 500 mb
trough approaches from the west, but this will depend on what
becomes of both Jose and Maria, and how well the ridge can hold
on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR ceilings with areas of ifr/lifr vsby in
coastal areas early this morning. IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight
and Wednesday...improving to VFR in northern zones on
Wednesday.

Long Term...Any lingering flight restrictions along the coast
Wed evening will improve to VFR overnight. N wind gusts to 25
kts are possible Wed night into Thu, but they should die off Thu
evening with VFR prevailing through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for outer waters and bays through
Wednesday. Expect Long period swell to increase today and will
persist through the end of the week. Have extended high surf
advisories through Wednesday.

Long Term...As Jose makes its closet pass top our S late Wed
could see borderline gales, especially S of Casco bay Wed night
into Thu morning. Otherwise the swell linger into Thu, but will
begin to gradually subside toward the end of the of the week,
but will likely remain abv 5 ft outside the bays through
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Storm surge associated with Jose still only expected to be
around a half foot which should not be a problem but increasing
swell may combined to produce some splash-over and beach erosion
around the time of high tide.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$