1254 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
A weak front will stall over or near the area Wednesday, then move
north as a warm front Thursday night. A cold front will move through
Friday night followed by dry high pressure into Sunday. Unsettled
weather could return as soon as next Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Skies should remain mainly clear overnight. The back door cold
front currently across northern South Carolina will move south
into northern areas late. No significant changes to the forecast
on the midnight update.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will push southward through the area on Wednesday,
pushed by high pressure to our north. Drier air and minimal synoptic
forcing will yield mainly dry conditions with this front, although
we still can`t rule out a few light showers near the Altamaha River,
which will be closer to the stalled front. The weather should be dry
until later Thursday when deeper moisture returns and isentropic
ascent increases across the area. The front will move northward as a
warm front Thursday night. Thus, showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms (mainly across GA) are expected. Focus remains on
Friday. Moisture keeps increasing ahead of a cold front that will
approach from the west. Although wind fields will be strengthening,
instability isn`t overly impressive. The models have backed off on
the intensity and strength of the front, especially as it
approaches our area during the day. The threat for severe weather is
low at this time. Either way it should be a breezy day with gusts up
to around 25 mph.
Temperatures should push into the lower to mid 80s most inland
locales Wednesday, with some upper 80s possible given the offshore
flow and frontal compression. On Thursday, high pressure building
from the north will keep it a bit cooler, especially across SC where
it should stay below 80 degrees except close to the Savannah River.
Once again wouldn`t be surprised if upper 80s occurred Thursday
toward inland portions of the Altamaha River closer to the stalled
front. Temperatures Friday will be moderated by the clouds/rain,
likely only reaching close to 80 inland. Prevailing onshore winds
will keep coastal locations much cooler during the daytime through
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will push through Friday night into Saturday followed
by drier high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather could return early
next week as a storm system moves across the Deep South, although
there remains significant uncertainty regarding the timing of best
rain chances. Highest confidence in rain will be the first part of
Friday night when showers, and possibly some thunderstorms, are
expected. Temperatures should remain above normal through the
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR at KSAV and KCHS through 06Z Thursday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible
Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to low clouds and/or fog,
then likely due to showers/thunderstorms/low clouds Thursday night
Decreasing winds/seas tonight as the pressure gradient weakens
and a weak front approaches from the north. We lowered seas to
3-4 FT over Charleston waters on the midnight update, otherwise
forecast in good shape.
Wednesday through Sunday: A weak cold front will move into the area
Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north. The front may stall
over or just souther of our GA waters Wednesday night, before moving
back north through our area as a warm front Thursday night. A cold
front will then move through late Friday, followed by high pressure
for the weekend.
Small Craft Advisories for winds and seas will probably start across
the GA waters Thursday night, expanding northward into the SC waters
through Friday and Friday night.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk for rip currents along the SC coast
Wednesday. Gusty winds and long period 3 foot swells will likely
produce rip currents. The combination of higher than normal tides,
onshore winds and swells in the surf zone will support an enhanced
risk for rip currents, possibly lasting into Friday.
Strengthening onshore winds combined with swells impacting the coast
will cause saltwater inundation, especially in vulnerable coastal
areas. The Wednesday evening high tide could reach Advisory levels,
while the Thursday evening high tide could approach Warning levels.
Coastal Flood headlines are expected with each of these tide cycles.
Additionally, some coastal flooding could occur with the Friday
evening high tide cycle.